The End of Jobs (not Steve Jobs)

Within the next few generations, we will all be out of a job. We're not going to lose them outsourcing to Mexico, or India, or China, or wherever. They won't have jobs either.

100% of the occupations we know today will be done by robots and AI in the very near future.

It might seem like a stretch to claim that ALL jobs will be technologized in the next three to four generations, but when you look at the long arch of technology and where we are today, it becomes a question of when the robolution will happen - not if.

Top jobs in usa

10. Janitors - 2.1M

9. Administrative Assistant - 2.2M

8. Hand Laborers - 2.5M

7. Waiters & Waitresses - 2.5M 

6. Customer Service Reps - 2.6M

5. Registered Nurses - 2.7M

4. Office Clerks - 2.9M

3. Food Prep - 3.2M

2. Cashiers - 3.5M

1. Retail Salespersons - 4.6M

Source: https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_nat.htm

Of the top ten occupations in the USA today, eight are already being taken on by robots and AI. Retail salespersons are being replaced by robots like Pepper. Self-service cashier kiosks are already common, and cashiers are completely removed in Amazon's future of commerce. Office workers replaced by AI. Food prep robots. Customer service bots. Drone waiters. Administrative AIssistant. Industrial Roomba style janitors. Right now only nurses and hand laborers have tasks too complicated and/or varied for robotic automation, but that isn't stopping people from researching it. (Robot Nurse, Humanoids)

While robots have been steadily gaining ground in business, the real job loss will come from AI. Ray Kurzweil, chief futurist at Google, thinks we'll achieve human level AI quite soon, as he outlines in the above chart. 20-30 years after developing AI that can think like a human, AI will be able to match the knowledge and computing power of the entire combined human species. This means every cognitive job will be better performed by AI - everything from legal advice to writing a novel, and potentially even government (society permitting).

There are two responses to this trajectory. We can fight it to preserve our familiar way of life, or we can embrace it and plan for a radically different future. It might seem like this is too far off to worry about, but the changes will be so drastic that we need to prepare for them years, or decades, in advance.

 

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